Lockdown measures are driving down coronavirus infection levels in but the overall rate remains high, according to one of the largest and most authoritative Covid surveys to date.
The research, which saw more than 85,000 swab tests carried out between February 4 and 13, showed that infections remained high but had dropped to just one in 200 people testing positive.
The findings from Imperial College Londons React study show that infections in England declined markedly from January into February.
According to the study, the R number is 0.72 and the number of infections is halving every 14.6 days.
Researchers said there is a strong decline in the prevalence of coronavirus in England among the general population five to six weeks into lockdown.
However, prevalence remains at levels similar to those observed in late September 2020.
According to the preprint, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, the number of Covid-19 cases in hospitals is higher than at the peak of the first wave in April 2020.
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They warn that the effects of easing social distancing need to be closely monitored in order to avoid a resurgence in infections and renewed pressure on health services.
The interim findings from the first half of the ninth round of the study suggest the prevalence of infection in the community in England was 0.51 per cent a fall of more than two thirds since the last report in January 2021 when 1.57 per cent of people tested positive.
The last time a prevalence at this rate was seen was around late September last year.
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Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, said: This is good news.
This is a better decline than many people would have hoped for, certainly when we were thinking about this at the end of December.
He added: This is all very encouraging and its definitely good news.
The note of caution is that clearly theres still a lot of pressure on hospitals, both in terms of number of new admissions, and in the total number of people in hospitals.
So the trend is great, but because prevalence is high, there essentially isnt a lot of headroom there isnt a lot of leeway.
Because if for any reason, we do return to growth then were immediately at levels of hospital pressure the same as in the peak of the first one.
Commenting on what the findings might mean for the easing of lockdown restrictions, Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial College London, said it is a very delicate balance.
Boris Johnson warns of ‘cautious’ approach to easing lockdown
He added: We could take a lot of encouragement from the decline that were seeing, but I would say were not out of the woods yet because the prevalence is still one in 200, and that obviously masks some differences in different areas and between different groups of people.
Although prevalence fell in all nine regions of England over the same period, there was greater uncertainty in the trend for the north-west, north-east, and Yorkshire and the Humber, researchers say.
In London, the south-east and the West Midlands, prevalence fell by around 80 per cent, although declines were smaller in the northern regions.
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Prevalence fell substantially across all age groups with the highest prevalence among 18 to 24 year olds at 0.89 per cent (0.47 per cent, 1.67 per cent), and those aged five to 12 years at 0.86 per cent.
Prof Elliott said: These encouraging results show that lockdown measures are effectively bringing infections down.
Its reassuring that the reduction in numbers of infections occurred in all ages and in most regions across the country.
While the trends weve observed are good news, we need to all work to keep infections down by sticking to the measures which are designed to protect us and our health system.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: These findings show encouraging signs infections are now heading in the right direction across the country, but we must not drop our guard.
Cases and hospital admissions remain high over 20,000 Covid-19 patients are in hospital so it is vital we all remain vigilant and follow the rules as our vaccination rollout continues at pace.
I urge everyone to continue to stay at home remember hands, face, space and get your jab when you receive your invite.
