The WA Liberal leader is spending the state election eve fighting for his political life in his ultra-marginal seat, after dire polling was published suggesting he is on track to lose.
Key points:

  • Polling shows Labor candidate Lisa Munday will win Dawesville
  • That is based on pre-poll voting trends being replicated tomorrow
  • Ms Munday is poised to win 55 per cent of the primary vote

A YouGov poll, published in The West Australian newspaper, surveyed 400 residents in Zak Kirkup’s Dawesville electorate and the results showed Labor candidate Lisa Munday would win comfortably if the pre-poll was replicated on Saturday.
Based on the YouGov poll, Ms Munday was on track to win 55 per cent of the primary vote, and 60 per cent of the vote to Mr Kirkup’s 40 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
That would represent an 10.7 per cent swing to Labor, which, if replicated across the state on election day, could leave the Liberal party with just a few seats in the Legislative Assembly.
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The 34-year-old holds Dawesville by just 0.8 per cent, making it the second-most marginal Liberal-held seat.
If Mr Kirkup loses his seat tomorrow, he would be the first WA party leader to lose their seat since 1933.
Former Premier James Mitchell lost his own seat when his government, the National Party, were smashed at the 1933 election.
Mr Kirkup has said that result would also spell the end of his political career.
Poll pre-empts danger of giving Labor total control, says Kirkup
Mr Kirkup, who is spending the final day of the campaign at pre-polling centres in Dawesville, said the poll showed what would happen if Labor won too much power and too much control at the election.
He promised to keep fighting until polls closed at 6pm tomorrow.
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“All this does to me is really just reinforce the point about why it’s important we get as many Liberals as elected as possible,” Mr Kirkup said.
“This isn’t about me, it’s about the entire state and making sure that beyond the election, there’s a strong Liberal party there to hold Labor to account.”
Mr Kirkup said people were worried about checks and balances in Parliament.
“That Labor might get control of everything and there might be no one to fight for them and their community,” he said.
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Political analyst Peter Kennedy said the YouGov poll showed the parlous state of the Liberal Party.
“Everyone knew the Liberals were well behind and the decision to appoint Mr Kirkup as the leader was a desperate measure to try and save the furniture,” Mr Kennedy said.
“But it looks like that measure hasn’t worked.”
Meanwhile, Premier Mark McGowan will spend the last day of the campaign visiting various suburban seats around Perth.
McGowan ‘not taking election for granted’
He started the day with a photo opportunity at Kings Park alongside his parents.
Mr Kirkup said the fact the Premier had been campaigning in blue-ribbon areas like Nedlands showed Labor believed they could gain those seats.
WA Premier Mark McGowan spent the morning of election eve with a media appearance flanked by his parents at Kings Park.(ABC News: Eliza Laschon
“Labor want to decapitate the Liberal party,” Mr Kirkup said.
Speaking in Joondalup on Friday morning, the most marginal Labor-held seat, Mr McGowan said this would be “the most important election in living memory”.
“It is a contest between experience and inexperience in an uncertain world,” Mr McGowan said.
Mr McGowan said he had no faith in pre-polling.
“The election tomorrow we do not take for granted. I will be working all day today and all day tomorrow to win the support of the people for Western Australia.”