For most vaccine candidates, two shots will be given initially to provide protection. Whether boosters or annual revaccinations will be necessary too, is yet to be revealed.
The announcement from Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech that their coronavirus vaccine appears to be 90 per cent effective thrilled medical experts around the world. AP
But, its too early to look beyond the science because a vaccine candidate hasnt made it over the line yet and its not impossible that none make it safely across in the next year.
To date, only two candidates have provided proof of principle that a vaccine is possible. Pfizers announcement early this week that its vaccine provided 90 per cent protection, according to interim results, triggered euphoria around the world. Russias announcement two days later that its trial had similar success although in a smaller study, hardly fired.
Enthusiasm for Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine was dampened by Western scientists who described Pfizers evidence as compelling and Russias as controversial.
Pfizers trial was highly powered and its protocol was transparent. Sputnik Vs protocol was not made public and commentators worried about its safety. But, while they warned its results should be interpreted with caution because of the small number of cases, they conceded the results were encouraging and some optimism could be drawn from them.
Other geopolitical tensions have been emerging too. One of the latest is the issue of vaccine diplomacy with suggestions that China, with its ability to work at scale, may deploy its vaccines for strategic gain in south-east Asia and other regions.
Unpredictable factors are at work at all levels of this pandemic. One is whether the virus mutates significantly enough to warrant new vaccines. Another is whether the virus will always be lurking somewhere. On the ground, it is already re-emerging in places where it was thought eliminated. New Zealand has just had a mystery case emerge from nowhere.
The good news is that as new waves of infection crash over continents, intensive care specialists are noticing that in hospitals, fewer people who are seriously ill with COVID-19 are dying.
The journal Nature says this cant be attributed to miracle drugs, new technologies or great advances in treatment strategies. Perhaps as numbers of infections increase, the demographics change and more younger people are being admitted to hospital.
Or perhaps the panic of the early days has passed, there is less noise from experimental treatments and, through hard hours at the bedside, doctors are getting incrementally better at managing this disease.
While their armamentarium is still small, it could be that through global sharing of intelligence, they now know what works best and their mindset has changed.
